Projections fall short of a national rally majority. If it can extend its lead in a second round of voting on July 7, it could form the country’s first far-right government since World War II, with 28-year-old Bartella as prime minister, replacing Macron’s pro-Europe, pro-business agenda with its populist, eurosceptic and anti-immigration platform.
Alternatively, a second-round result that does not produce a clear majority could paralyze French politics.
“The French crisis has just begun,” said Gérard Arad, former French ambassador to the United States.
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Bardella vowed on Sunday night to become “prime minister of all the French people” and promote “the unity of the nation”. He then lashed out at the left and the far left, now his main competition, saying they would “lead the country into disorder, insurgency and the destruction of our economy”.
Le Pen declared in a speech on Sunday night that voters were “willing to turn the page after seven years of contempt and corrosive power”.
Macron is not conceding defeat. In a statement, he hailed the unusually high turnout and called for a “broad, clear Democratic and Republican rally for the runoff.” But his gamble to call early elections backfired spectacularly and projected results suggest his influence in French politics is rapidly waning.
Arad compared the French emperor to Napoleon Bonaparte in 1812 when he launched his unsuccessful campaign to invade Russia. Many politicians who have supported Macron over the years face the prospect of losing their seats, leaving him politically isolated.
Macron may remain president until his term ends in 2027 – and has said he will not resign. But he cannot do much to prevent the passage of laws passed by far-right majorities or enact new policies in the case of a hung parliament.
Sunday’s scheduled results could cause alarm in many European capitals. France is one of the original members of the European Union, its second largest economy and a driving force in EU affairs. The National Rally party does not support leaving the bloc, but many of its proposals are outside EU policies.
Another concern is whether the French far-right could undermine Europe’s support for Ukraine and its stance on Russia. Le Pen has already challenged Macron’s grip on French foreign policy and security, suggesting the president should take on a more prestigious role as commander-in-chief of the armed forces.
A hung parliament in France could destabilize European politics. Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, said France “seems headed for deadlock and chaos with an irreconcilably blocked national assembly. This is bad news for France, the EU and Ukraine.”
In many ways, Sunday’s vote was a vote on Macron, who founded a movement in his own image and upended French politics when he became the first modern president elected from outside the center-left and center-right parties that have dominated French politics for decades. .
Macron is seen by his supporters as a master political strategist and the only French politician capable of derailing the rise of the far-right, having sidelined Le Pen for the presidency twice, in 2017 and 2022.
But in the coming days, Macron’s centrist coalition could “implode,” said Pierre Mathiot, a political scientist at Science Poe. “The centre-right will reorganize itself without Macron,” he said.
Some of Macron’s critics accuse him of an imperial governing style and the erosion of traditional political parties, making radical parties the only viable outlets for anyone disillusioned with his plans.
The National Rally party grew out of a fringe movement co-founded by Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who repeatedly called the Nazi gas chambers a “detail” of history and reinforced the toxicity of the far right in many circles. But efforts by Marine Le Pen and Bartella to woo the party broadly paid off, and the party handed Macron’s coalition a humiliating defeat in the European Parliament elections on June 9.
While Macron did not need to dissolve France’s National Assembly, he said he had no choice. If he hadn’t called for the vote, he told reporters, “You would have said to me: ‘This guy has lost touch with reality’.”
He seems to be betting that the possibility of a far-right government will rally his supporters and strengthen his party’s mandate. But he seems to have underestimated both the far right and the French left, which – despite deep divisions – have managed to cobble together a broad coalition, at least united by opposition to Macron.
Although Sunday’s vote was more akin to a presidential election than a legislative first round, it appeared to primarily benefit the National Rally and the Left Alliance.
“He may have underestimated the animosity he would generate in a segment of the population,” said Chloe Morin, an author and political analyst.
Racist and anti-semitism rhetoric and conspiracy theories spread by National Rally candidates have come under scrutiny during the campaign frenzy — and widened questions about whether the party’s rebranding is merely window dressing. 1 in 5 National Rally candidates for parliament have made “racist, anti-Semitic and homophobic remarks,” French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said in a televised debate on Thursday.
Many voters were undeterred by these concerns.
On Sunday, far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon announced his new Popular Front coalition as the “only alternative” to the National Rally amid losses in the Macron coalition.
He said leftist candidates would drop out of third-place races, risk splitting the vote in the second round and help National Rally candidates win. That pledge put pressure on Macron and his allies to promise the same.
Projections show that there could be 315 runoffs between more than two candidates.
Attal said vaguely that the centrist alliance would withdraw candidates if they prevented the victory of “another candidate who defends the values of the republic”.
But Macron has sometimes portrayed the far left and the far right as equally dangerous.
Political scientist Mathiot said the number of races with more than two candidates will be decisive next Sunday. If there are many triangular contests, the National Rally will get absolute majority,” he said.
Rouhala reported from Brussels and Timsit from Nice, France.
