India, the world’s largest arms importer, has diversified its defense import portfolio and grown domestic production in recent years, but it still buys more than 50% of its defense equipment from Russia.
Taking advantage of the cheap prices offered by Moscow, India has increased its oil imports from Russia – Russia was India’s biggest oil supplier last year.
The US and its allies have often asked India to take a clear stand on the war, but they have refrained from using strong sanctions or pressure.
The West sees India as a counterbalance to China and does not want to disrupt that dynamic. India, now the fifth largest economy in the world, is also a growing market for business.
Mr Kugelman says the West will welcome the visit and Delhi’s willingness to engage with all sides.
“Mr Modi has a strong incentive to convince Moscow that there is nothing left to save with Kiev,” he says.
This is important because India wants to develop its relations with the West, especially the US, and does not want to disrupt the momentum. US Ambassador to India Eric Garcetti recently said the relationship “should not be taken for granted”.
India also needs the West as its Asian rivals China and Russia have forged closer ties in recent years.
While Delhi has long viewed Moscow as a power that can exert pressure on a assertive China when necessary, it cannot be taken for granted.
Meanwhile, many media commentators have spoken of the possibility of Mr Modi positioning himself as a peacemaker, given India’s close ties with Moscow and the West.
But it is unlikely that he will return with a peace plan.
“Does India actually accept it, are the conditions right? Other countries don’t like India trying to mediate on its own issues, chief among them being Kashmir. I don’t think Mr Modi will formally mediate unless both Russia and Ukraine are willing. At this point, I don’t think they do,” adds Mr Kugelman.
